foresight, Volume 14, Issue 2

ebook foresight

By Tugrul U. Daim

cover image of foresight, Volume 14, Issue 2

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The papers in this ebook were selected from those presented at the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET) in July 2010 at Phuket Thailand. This issue reviews a wide range of methods and tools for managing technological disruptions. Potdar and Rogers provide an operational focus by studying reverse logistics and attempt to forecast product returns. Their methodology combines data envelopment analysis (DEA) linear regression and central tendency moving average to forecast product returns for the consumer electronics industry. Harmon et al then introduce linkages to the technology level while planning for sustainable Information Technology services resulting in a technology roadmap. They use a qualitative three-phase process including domain analysis, which features a comprehensive literature review and expert panel depth interviews; roadmap development, which involved two technology roadmapping brainstorming sessions; and follow-up activity, to confirm roadmap session results with the expert panel. Shen et al integrate the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique and the analytic network process (ANP) to construct a technology evaluation model for the emerging organic light emitting diode (OLED) display technology. Laakso et al focus on the policy aspects and describe a Delphi based approach to estimate the effect of regulation on the mobile operator business. They report that the regulatory framework for the mobile operator business has become more complex over the years and that this complexity is also likely to grow in the future. Finally Chien and Weng apply the concept of an affiliated network through social network analysis exploring data from US Patent Office. They demonstrate that this approach helps provide insight into the technology development landscape.

foresight, Volume 14, Issue 2